Last week was filled with disappointing data. So much so that Goldman Sachs downgraded their forecast last night:
Following another week of weak economic data, we have cut our estimates for real GDP growth in the second and third quarter of 2011 to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2% and 3.25%. Our forecasts for Q4 and 2012 are under review, but even excluding any further changes we now expect the unemployment rate to come down only modestly to 8% at the end of 2012.The main reason for the downgrade is that the high-frequency information on overall economic activity has continued to fall substantially short of our expectations.
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One key question in coming months is whether final demand recovers to the 2%-2% pace that is probably necessary to keep GDP growth near trend and prevent the unemployment rate from rising more noticeably.
Before we get to the data, there were a couple other key stories last week: 1) the European bank stress tests disappointed most analysts (only a few banks were required to raise capital, see from the Financial Times: Banks stress test pass rate under fire), and 2) the debt ceiling negotiations continued, although this appears to be almost over (see: Debt Ceiling Charade: Almost Over).
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from May to June (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 8.1% from June 2010.
14 Jul
Posted by Allison Thomas as Corporate Finance
The firm reported a net profit of 53.40 billion yen between September and May, compared with 67.18 billion yen in the same period a year earlier.
14 Jul
Posted by Allison Thomas as Corporate Finance
Private landlords are continuing to benefit from the depressed state of the housing market, according to figures from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA).
The regulatory body’s latest survey showed that nearly three quarters of its members had more prospective tenants on their books than properties to let.
A similar survey carried out this time two years ago found that only 10% of letting agencies were reporting a lack supply.
The situation is more acute in London where 82% of agents reported an over-supply of would-be tenants. ARLA said the increased demand for rental property was primarily being driven by potential first-time buyers being unable to secure mortgage funding to buy their own home.
The rise in demand is helping to push prices to record levels. S
13 Jul
Posted by Allison Thomas as Corporate Finance
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The UK property market remained in the doldrums in June as fewer properties came onto the market and demand fell back, according to the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
The number new buyer enquiries remained flat after falling back by 1% in May as those looking to move continued to struggle to secure mortgage lending.
RICS members reported that the only buyers they currently consider to be serious are those that have already sold their home or have a mortgage offer in place.
New instructions fell as potential vendors adopted a “wait and see” approach in response to continued uncertainty over the economy.
Alan Collett, RICS housing spokesperson, said: “The housing market was pretty flat during June. Buyer